The current count:

HRC:  64,155,272  (47.91%)
DJT: -62,214,222  (46.46%)
————
= 1,941,050  (  1.45%)

These figures raise, at the very least, two very distinct issues which should not be confused or conflated with each other (but which seem to be by Trump and those speaking for him these days).

First, as is appropriate, justified and expected in a democracy, they call into question the legitimacy of the right of one to assume an elected office without winning the popular vote. The rejoinder to this is invariably the legal argument that these (the method of selection through the Electoral College system) were the rules, he played and won by the rules, get over it.Read More »

My niece writes:

Do you think the electoral college should be somehow reformed or changed? It just seems crazy to me that we have a president for the second time in 16 years who did not win the popular vote (or so it seems for this election).

I am really sad, Tio. I am sad that such a hateful campaign was rewarded with this victory. I am scared for my children. I am scared that this is the world they are growing up in and that the leader of their country is someone whom I cannot respect as a human being.

Call me dramatic but I am truly heartbroken and devastated. I feel like we’ve failed. Read More »

Even though it’s now come full circle, I want to write about this FBI thing. For two reasons. First, because the initial Fox News report from Bret Baier about likely indictments, combined with a tightening in the polls, sent me into a bit of the Chicken Little mode, messaging my friends and posting how the sky seemed to be falling. That deserves a thorough reassessment from the perspective of 7 several  days hence and the other information that has hit the street on this matter.

Second, because this one event is all too revealing of the problems we now face with our democratic system and some of its essential institutions. In particular, law enforcement and the media.Read More »

I continue to muse on Hillary Clinton’s media strategy and remain baffled by it. I laid out in general terms the evidence of its ineffectiveness a couple of days ago (“Mr. Empathy“), but I think it’s worth taking a closer look because this is usually where campaigns are won and lost and hers sure ain’t firing on all cylinders right now.

I have not, of course, seen the Clinton campaign’s polling nor am I privy to their focus groups. I just have to assume they’ve got the best that money can buy in terms of data, experience, analytics and creativity. Which makes it all the more puzzling that they seem to be sputtering so badly in this department.Read More »

He says “follow me,” gets in his car and starts to drive down the road. You follow. You’re not always 100% sure where he’s going, but more often than not you have a fairly decent idea, and you’ve kind of got a duty to try to see where he’s going–not to mention you’re curious as hell.

Then he suddenly swerves off into a cornfield. Sometimes he stops to pick an ear of corn, maybe sometimes he offers one to you. Sometimes he’ll swerve back onto the road. Sometimes he’ll drive through a pond and a forest and come out on a different road altogether. Then he stops and you have no idea where you are or where he intended to go; and asking him is pointless because he’ll just say “I’ll show you, follow me,” start up the car and start driving down the road again. When it’s all over you can identify where he’s led you about as often as a blind pig finds an acorn.Read More »

The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers ad guys.

But before we get to that, let’s get this out there to begin: while the before and after party coverage of Monday night’s debate was every bit as appalling as expected, the moderator for the debate itself, NBC’s Lester Holt, is getting, as far as I can see, zero coverage for the solid performance he turned in. He put some curbs on the road, but mostly let the two candidates drive while pointing them, much more often than not, to substantive issues.  Good for him.

By now you’ve heard all of the analysis of the debate you want to hear, so I will spare you from mine. Here’s all you really need to understand: no one will really know the effect of the debate on the race until Monday–by which time there will be enough post-debate polling to get a sense of who benefited and who didn’t from their performances.

Also understand this: if Hillary does not get a poll bump from this debate, where by all accounts she clearly outperformed Trump, her campaign is in very serious trouble. Read More »

“Share this if you’re outraged!”

Unless you’re clicking on, posting and sharing only cute animal videos, chances are these days that, in this heady, strange election season, not a scroll through your Facebook feed goes by without an invitation to share your exasperation and disgust about this or that abomination du jour.

Another police shooting of an African American, quarterbacks kneeling to the national anthem, guns, the rich, the poor, polluters, tax laws, legality of certain drugs compared to the illegality of others and of course the latest uttering and/or past exploits of our beloved presidential candidates.Read More »

…and how psychopathology may save the nation from putting a crazy person in the White House.

[And we’re back! It’s been an event-filled four month absence and I’ve had plenty to say–just been too lazy to say it in writing. So with 100 days or so to go, we lightly tiptoe back into the ring.]

There is an almost audible sigh of relief exhaling from the sane portion of the U.S. electorate this week, as poll after post-DNC-convention poll shows Hillary Clinton opening an increasingly wide gap over the Republican nominee, clown of renown Donald Trump. What is developing into a heady optimism from Democrats certainly seems justified. After all, their candidate is currently running stronger in the horse race–margin-wise–than Obama did at the same point in both 2008 and 2012. And given Trump’s joyride on the Crazytown bus the last 10 days, over which the GOP has purportedly reached a “new level of panic,” one might well ask: “How could this ever become a close race?” Well, let’s take a look.Read More »

With all of the rumblings and prognostications of impending doom for the Trump campaign following his drubbing in Wisconsin, I feel compelled to come out of my hibernation to weigh in again on the chances of an open Republican convention.

Your election junkie has been on a self-imposed sabbatical brought on by the lack of anything to say about the primaries which, in his opinion, were effectively sewn up six weeks ago on both sides of the fence.  Given that I had not expected Trump to win Wisconsin anyway, little has changed in my mind since then. But since sites like the well respected fivethirtyeight.com have Trump trending downward, I thought it might be worth revisiting my prediction on the R side of things.Read More »

With Trump’s overwhelming victories in South Carolina and the Nevada caucuses, we are now, incredibly enough, seeing a raft of articles cropping up about why he might actually win, whether he can be stopped, how he might be stopped (and here and here).  Folks, listen up. It’s over. This is all just smoke billowing out of the media furnace.

Your Election Junkie, wearing his little Number Monkey hat, has done the math for you and barring something approaching a black swan event (okay, a bit overly dramatic, but you get the idea), there’s nothing that is going to keep Trump from being crowned the Republican nominee.Read More »